Lula Walks Into Trump's White House on a Knife's Edge

Brazil's president faces a make-or-break showdown with Trump over tariffs that have crippled exports. One wrong move could blow the entire relationship apart.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is heading to the White House on Thursday for a working meeting that could reshape trade relations between the US and South America’s largest economy, or send them spiraling into chaos.

This isn’t a casual chat. Trump and Lula’s relationship has been teetering on the edge since Trump returned to office, and the tension points are explosive.

Here’s what’s really at stake: approximately 29% of Brazil’s exports to the US are hit with tariffs. In April, Trump slapped a flat 10% tariff on every country globally. Then in July, he dropped a bombshell, adding another 40% on various Brazilian products, viewed by many as retaliation for Trump’s demand that Lula drop criminal charges against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, a Trump ally, was convicted in November of leading a coup attempt and sentenced to 27 years in prison.

The damage has been devastating. Brazilian exports to the US in the first quarter of 2025 hit their lowest level since 1997, plummeting 18.7% year-over-year to just $7.8 billion. That’s not a dip. That’s a freefall.

But here’s the plot twist: the relationship thawed recently. Trump eased some tariffs in November. In February, the US Supreme Court ruled some of his tariffs illegal. The two leaders even shared warm words at the UN last September. Trump called Lula “a very nice man” and claimed they had “excellent chemistry.”

So what’s on the agenda Thursday? Three battlegrounds dominate.

First, tariffs. Lula’s economic team wants the remaining duties slashed or eliminated entirely. They’re hoping Trump softens his stance further.

Second, critical minerals. This is where things get strategic. Brazil holds the world’s second-largest known reserves of rare earth elements, just behind China. The US desperately wants access to lithium, cobalt, and niobium needed for electric batteries, wind turbines, military equipment, and satellites. But Brazil is resisting, demanding greater state control over mining projects and insisting the US buy processed minerals, not just raw exports.

Third, organized crime. Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin says Lula wants to discuss a pact to combat criminal networks.

The wildcard? Nobody knows if Trump will actually engage seriously on Brazil’s full agenda. According to sources, whether all issues get addressed depends on “the temperature the White House sets for the meeting.”

Translation: Trump holds all the cards, and Lula has to hope he’s in a generous mood.