Israel's Ceasefire Math: 2,400 Violations and Counting

The ceasefire that wasn’t has become a masterclass in creative interpretation. What was supposed to be a halt to violence in Gaza transformed into something resembling a very slow-motion war, complete with spreadsheets.

From October 10, 2025 onward, Israel logged at least 2,400 violations of the ceasefire agreement, according to Gaza’s Government Media Office. The arithmetic breaks down neatly: 1,109 bombing and shelling operations, 921 instances of shooting at civilians, 97 raids into areas designated off-limits under the deal, and 273 instances of property demolition. Another 50 Palestinians were detained.

The human toll follows the bureaucratic one. At least 824 Palestinians have been killed and 2,316 wounded since the ceasefire took effect. October 19 and 29 proved particularly lethal. On October 19, Israeli forces killed 45 people after accusing Hamas of violations following two Israeli soldier deaths in Rafah. On October 29, the death toll reached 109, including 52 children, following an exchange of gunfire that killed one Israeli soldier. Then-President Donald Trump called these attacks justified “retribution.”

One might reasonably ask: what’s the difference between war and ceasefire when attacks occur on 181 of 203 days?

The ceasefire terms, signed by representatives from some 30 countries on October 13 without Israel or Hamas present, outlined a three-phase process. Phase one included lifting blockades on humanitarian aid, releasing captives, and withdrawing Israeli forces to a designated “yellow line.” On paper, it sounded comprehensive.

Reality diverged sharply. Between October 10 and February 14, 2026, only 41,714 of 110,400 allocated trucks entered Gaza, reaching just 37 percent of intended supplies. Israeli inspections created bottlenecks. More problematically, Israel blocked nutritious items like meat, dairy, and fresh vegetables while permitting snacks and soft drinks. The distinction matters for a starving population.

Humanitarian releases did occur: Hamas released 20 living Israeli captives in October in exchange for 1,950 Palestinian prisoners and disappeared persons. By December 26, Hamas had returned all 28 bodies of deceased Israeli captives. Israel returned over 300 Palestinian bodies, many bearing marks of torture and mutilation.

The ceasefire persists technically, though international legal scholars might struggle to recognize it as such. What exists instead is negotiated pause punctuated by regular violence, a conflict frozen only in the sense that its pace has slowed.