Europe's surprising courtship of Armenia unsettles Putin

More than thirty European leaders are converging on Armenia this week for two historic summits, marking an extraordinary moment for a three-million-person nation that has long orbited firmly within Russia’s sphere of influence. The optics alone tell the story: a country that hosts a Russian military base, belongs to Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union, and buys Russian gas at subsidized rates is now rolling out the red carpet for Europe’s political establishment.

The European Political Community summit kicks off Monday in Yerevan, followed Tuesday by the first-ever bilateral EU-Armenia meeting with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa in attendance.

What triggered this unexpected realignment? Azerbaijan’s 2023 military offensive. When Baku launched its lightning operation to seize Nagorno-Karabakh, expelling over 100,000 ethnic Armenians, Moscow’s response was conspicuously passive. Russian peacekeepers stationed in the region simply stood aside. That moment of abandonment shattered whatever illusions Armenia harbored about its security guarantees.

“The security architecture we are in was not working,” acknowledged Sargis Khandanyan, chairman of Armenia’s parliamentary foreign relations committee. The EU’s physical presence on Armenia’s border, deployed during negotiations the year prior, shifted public sentiment. Armenians began questioning why they should remain tethered to a ally that wouldn’t defend them.

By March 2025, Armenia’s parliament launched formal EU membership proceedings. August brought a landmark peace agreement with Azerbaijan signed at the White House, complete with plans for a major connectivity corridor linking the region to European markets.

Putin has responded with undisguised irritation. During an April Kremlin meeting, he reminded Pashinyan that simultaneous membership in both the EU and Eurasian Economic Union is “simply impossible by definition.” Then came the pettiness: Russia banned Armenian mineral water just before Monday’s summit. Hackers have disrupted Armenian government operations, created fake EU ambassador accounts to trick NGO leaders, and deployed disinformation campaigns on Telegram.

Armenian officials and EU observers acknowledge the interference reflects sophisticated Russian hybrid tactics. IP addresses from cyberattacks traced back to Zelenograd, near Moscow. Mass WhatsApp compromises targeted government officials.

Europe is offering civilian missions, visa liberalization, and disinformation monitoring. Notably absent: defense guarantees, EU membership timelines, or any replacement for Russian gas.

Armenia’s balancing act remains precarious, and the Kremlin clearly intends to make the cost of Western alignment steep.